Interesting thread. I'd agree there's a lot of conflicting forces at work today that create the risk of unrest. Just look at the Occupy movement. Look at how we elected a democratic president and then only 2 years later the Republicans have the house. High unemployment. Stagnant wages for the bottom 50%. A huge deficit. Fighting wars for a decade that people don't believe in, that have cost lives and a ton of money. People aren't happy with the condition and direction of the country and the fact is that these things are factors for unrest.
My question has always been what's the theoretical tipping point? What's the critical mass? Not cause I want to stockpile guns or food. I think it's interesting to look at. Overall I think a large swath of like-minded people need to be in a pretty desperate place to consider an uprising of any sort. Overall the risk of unrest seems to me to be very very low. Obviously a recession always increases the risk among poorer and marginalized groups, but I think in this day and age the land of abundance, even in a recession, is plenty abundant to keep everyone happy enough with the status quo. If you look at previous American examples of unrest, the American Revolution and the Civil War you see large divides between two sets of people. The primary ignition point was economic in both cases. Taxes in the American Revolution. Tariffs in the Civil War. It's when one group of people willfully squeeze another group of people economically that the risk for unrest rises dramatically. The Occupy movement tried to pin the 1% with the blame, but that argument hardly holds water.
In Europe, I'd say the risk is a bit higher. Austerity cuts are causing riots in the more financially troubled countries. Countries are falling into default like dominoes, but even there I think things will right themselves long before full scale unrest happens.
Another trends is that overall around the world and in developed countries things are improving on the back of enormous progress in information technology. I believe a lot of the shifts we're seeing in the economy are growing pains to adjust to a new leaner, more robust, and more global economy, that's ultimately beneficial. Technology has the power to both distribute and consolidate power. Information technology is so powerful, broad, and applicable in scope that I think how the consolidation and distribution of various power sources (economic, cultural, social, political, etc) pans out in response to new technology platforms will decide the stability of nations in the next decade or so. Overall I think the trend will be toward more stability in the US and worldwide, however the US may not be the center of the universe. The hurt you see now may be long lasting because the US in many industries has lost its competitive edge.
I have to agree with the person who said you should be more worried about insurance companies denying claims than preparing for unrest. People always talk of unrest in times of recession. I believe in owning guns but I don't own one. I have better things to spend a few hundred dollars on - like co-pays!!
