I'm groggy, so please correct the math as needed. And Im too
tired to battle my old browser for the articles here, but they're
easily Googled.
Dyza, does the source you cite say tx increases the median age
of cystics by 4.5 or that 4.5 is the median survival time of tx
recipients? The Rainbow Babies/Birmingham study a few years
back shows it's dubious whether tx increases the longevity of tx
recipents at all. In other words, their non-tx group in the same
FEV1 range lived about as long or longer as those who were tx'd.
Yes, there were factors other than FEV1, and this was under the
old allocation system, but the new system is only a year and a half
old and most of those old-system patients are still with us, affecting
the median. Anyway, the paper reminds us that tx is no great
bargain either. The Times article this week suggested the same
thing.
And even if every tx patient lived exactly 4.5 years post-surgery,
they would still only represent a fourth or a fifth of the whole CF
population and thus would have only a slight effect on the overall
median.
In addition, the median age of tx is 28. The median survival of
those patients is five years. Therefore, they should bring the
overall CF median DOWN, not up. Is that right?
As someone suggested above, the medians are misleading
numbers because there is not one type of CF or CF treatment.
Minnesota, for instance, reports that the discrepancy between
non-diabetic male cystics and diabetic females is something like 17
years. So you can't have the same CF twice.
Q